Energyforum
Price Drivers on the European Power Market
22-23 May 2008, Barcelona, Spain
Day 1: Thursday, May 22
9:00-9:30 Registration and coffee
9:30-9:40 Chairman John King, Managing Partner, Eclipse Energy Group AS, welcomes and opens the conference
9:40-10:15 Carbon Impact on Power Prices
- Spreads analysis
- Pass through levels: UK and Germany vs. Italy
- Looking forward
Paulo Homem Cristo, Senior Analyst, Point Carbon
Paulo Homem Cristo is a senior analyst at Point Carbon with experience in fundamental modelling, analysis of energy and carbon markets. He follows energy and carbon markets closely with an emphasis on power and oil. For the last three years he has been responsible for power modelling. Previously he worked in management consultancy at PricewaterhouseCoopers and holds a Master of Science degree in Energy Policy awarded by Imperial College London.
10:15-10:50 The European gas market and its dependence on Russia
John King, Managing Partner, Eclipse Energy Group AS
John King is Managing Partner of Eclipse Energy Group and has 25 years experience from Shell and Statoil in the UK, USA and Norway. He has a wide ranging career from upstream E&P activities, to gas transportation to Risk Management and futures trading. He has held several senior positions such as Managing Director of Alliance Gas, Director of Trading, Market Manager Natural Gas for Belgium and the Netherlands and Transportation Manager for the UK Interconnector Project. John is responsible for upstream Norway issues and gas pricing services in Eclipse Energy Group. He is also used as Expert Opinion in gas arbitration proceedings in Europe.
10:50-11:20 Coffee & Tea
11:20-11:55 Wind developments in Spain
- Emergence of Spain as a Global Wind Leader
- Structure of Spanish wind industry
- Wind in the Spanish Power sector
- Wind in the Electricity market
- Wind as a Contributor in the Long Term Portfolio
Eduard Sala de Vedruna, Senior Analyst, Emerging Energy Research
Eduard Sala de Vedruna is a Senior Analyst in EERs European Wind Energy Advisory Group. Eduard coordinates and provides competitive strategy and market analysis to leading developers and utilities in the European wind industry on key trends and market opportunities. Prior to joining EER, Eduard worked seven years as a market research analyst and management consultant, acquiring a large experience in energy.
11:55-12:30 Weather, decisive price driver in several dimensions
- Influencing Fuel Markets
- A key factor in the CO2-balance
- Induces extreme volatility in the Power Markets
Pål Svendsen, Senior Analyst, Nena
Pål Svendsen is senior analyst at Nena and holds a Master of Science in Engineering from NTNU with a major in power engineering. His expertise includes hydrological modelling, and short- and long term price forecasting of the power markets. Nena provides independent, non-biased price prognoses and fundamental market analyses to major utilities and trading entities throughout Europe as well as analysis on the Nordic Power, Continental European Power, CO2 Emission and Dry Freight markets.
12:30-13:05 Renewables as price drivers
- Wind energy in EU
- Long term market analysis - 2020
- What are the expected impacts on electricity prices until 2020 of the new RES targets and how will the ETS market interacts with the results? The case of Northern Europe.
Jesper Munksgaard, Senior Consultant, ECON Pöyry
Jesper Munksgaard is senior consultant in ECON with special expertise in renewable energy, energy policy and energy markets. He is economist and holds a Ph.D. in energy economics from Risoe National Laboratory in Denmark. Jesper has a record of more than twenty years experience from the energy sector. He has broad experience in project management, project application and dissemination of research results. He also has experience in cooperation with organisations in the energy sector, e.g. universities, Danish and foreign research institutions, consultancies, interest organisations and public supply companies. Jesper has been working with a wide range of issues within the energy and environmental area such as wind power economics, liberalisation of energy markets, market imperfections, energy taxes, environmental indicators, environmental costs and life cycle assessment.
13:05-14:15 Lunch
14:15-14:50 Main Price Drivers and Sensitivity Analysis of CO2 in the Spanish Power Market
José Luis Pastor, Head of Power and CO2 Trading & Orginization, Endesa S.A
José Luis Pastor is Head of Power and CO2 Trading & Orginization at Endesa S.A. He holds a degree in law from the College of Madrid as well as a degree in Management and Economics. Before joining Endesa S.A in 2001, Mr. Pastor worked as a Senior Trader and New Business Development Manager at Hidroelectrica del Cantabrico S.A. Endesa is the leading utility in the Spanish electricity system and the number one private-sector multinational electricity utility in Latin America; it is a major operator in the European Mediterranean region, particularly in Morocco and Portugal.
14:50-15:25 Short and long term impacts of cross border trade
- Utilisation of cross border capacity
- Nature of price impact
- Impact on investment patterns
Jørgen Bjørndalen, Advisor, ECgroup AS
Jørgen Bjørndalen is advisor at ECgroup AS. With 20 years of experience from research and consulting to the energy sector, Jørgen has an unusually broad experience. He has previously made detailed studies about potential interconnections between Norway and Denmark, Germany and the UK. He successfully supported Statnett and TenneT with their applications to develop NorNed as a regulated interconnection between Norway and the Netherlands and is currently involved in a similar process for a merchant interconnector between Norway and Germany.
15:25-15:55 Coffee and Tea
15:55-16:30 Market Coupling and Transparency
Les Male, Commercial Director, APX Group
Andrew Les Male has over 15 years experience in the European gas and power industry with the past ten years focused on trading, risk management and trading systems. Mr Male, an Engineering graduate from the University of Bath, joined British Gas as a pipeline engineer, before managing strategic projects within the development of the Network Code, MMC referrals, domestic competition and the RGTA programme. After leading the development of Europe’s first gas spot market (OCM) for Transco, he left to join EnMO seven years ago as Director of Commercial Operations responsible for Marketing, Regulation and other front office business areas.
Today, Mr Male is on the Management Board as the Commercial Director for APX Group encompassing the market development activities, sales and account management for over 200 memberships as well as the marketing & communications responsibilities for corporate stakeholders and members.
16:30-17:00 Questions and discussion
17:00-17:15 Chairman's summary of the first conference day
20:00 Conference Dinner
Day 2: Friday, May 23
9:00-9:10 Opening of the second day by the chairman
John King, Eclipse Energy Group AS
9:10-9:50 The key carbon market drivers for Phase 2 and beyond 2012
Imtiaz Ahmad, Executive Director, Morgan Stanley
Imtiaz Ahmad is an Executive Director at Morgan Stanley, responsible for trading and origination of carbon at the bank. Imtiaz Ahmad is also the Vice President and a joboard member of International Carbon Investors and Services. Previous to joining Morgan Stanley, Imtiaz Ahmad worked for BHP Billiton where he took the company into the emissions market and attained the award of Point Carbon trader of the year 2005. During his time in the carbon market Imtiaz Ahmad has been responsible for the first forward brokered trades for the December 2006-12, 2008 -12 strip, and 2013 EUA vintage contracts, plus the first official forward December 2005 EUA trade.
9:50-10:20 Coal and freight; analysis and perspectives
- Main drivers in the coal and freight markets
- Analysis of resent events and outlook scenario
Guillaume Perret, Consultant, Perret Associates
Guillaume Perret has twelve years' extensive experience in coal and commodities trading. Before establishing his own consulting business, Perret Associates Ltd, Mr. Perret spent five years with RWE in London, setting up and developing the freight and steam coal derivatives trading desk, and five years with Louis Dreyfus Négoce in Paris, trading international grains and chartering physical vessels. Perret's consulting business provides business development, risk management and strategy support for companies eager to develop their coal, freight and commodity trading activities.
10:20-10:50 Coffee & Tea
10:50-11:30 Key questions about financial coal trading
- Why hedge?
- Coal price drivers
- Volatility and liquidity of the market
- Technical vs. fundamental trading
Dirk Gerling, Senior Trader, Vattenfall Trading Services AS
Dirk Gerling joined Vattenfall this year as Senior Trader for coal and freight. He concentrates on financial trading within the newly founded Copenhagen unit, where all coal trading activities of the Vattenfall group are centralised. Dirk has five years experience in emissions and coal trading as well as physical fuel procurement from his work at German utility EnBW. He has a banking background with 3 years in treasury services at Apobank and holds a degree in business administration.
11:30-12:10 Natural Gas- Electricity and Carbon: Inter-Relationship History and Outlook for 2008
- How the power-gas-carbon price relationship has emerged
- Fuel-Switching decisions theory and practice
- Role of policy instruments
- Key natural gas/LNG trigger events in 2008 and likely implications for the inter-relationship
Ashutosh Shastri, Director, Enerstrat Consulting
Ashutosh Shastri is the founder of EnerStrat Consulting- a London based strategy-policy-technology advisory practice. Ashutosh has been one of the earliest commentators on the global energy and carbon markets and its inter-relationships with the electricity-natural gas/LNG sector. He is the author of the PRMIA publication "The Professional Risk Managers Guide to Energy and Environmental Markets" - which extensively covers the carbon emission market place. Prior to founding EnerStrat, Ashutosh was a specialist consultant in the global energy practice of McKinsey & Co and has assisted clients all around the world.
12:10-12:50 Spark Spread Trading and volatility term structure of the underlying commodities
- Spark spread definitions: Asset based vs. market based
- Spark spread dynamics: Which spreads are mean reverting and why?
- Deriving Value at Risk for spark spread positions from volatility and correlation term structure
- Spark spread trading strategies
Franz Zehner, Senior Consultant, Maycroft
Consulting Franz Zehner is an energy trading professional with experience in risk management, portfolio optimization and asset backed trading. He has worked for 6 years as a risk analyst with the corporate risk department of Nuon and as a front office quant with Essent’s trading department. As a senior consultant with Maycroft he offers specialized advice on pricing, modelling and risk management for energy and utility companies.
12:50-14:00 Lunch
14:00-14:40 A new oil index as leading benchmark
- Price drivers of oil
- Current benchmarks
- Problems of common benchmarks
- Bottlenecks in oil market in general and price discovery more specifically
Jerry de Leeuw, Managing Director, Mercurious
Jerry de Leeuw is founder and Managing Director of Mercurious. After completing his study in Economics in 1995 he became a MarketMaker on the trading-floor of the European Option Exchange in Amsterdam. He was employed by Curvalue on EOE, AEX and Euronext.
Jerry has traded by open out-cry on the floors of various exchanges and has a great deal of experience in screen-based trading. He has traded on EOE, AEX, Euronext, Euronext Liffe, DAX-Xetra, Eurex, NYSE, Nasdaq, NYMEX etc. With APX, Jerry was responsible for the development of the continental gas markets in Belgium and The Netherlands.
14:40-15:10 Coffee & Tea
15:10-15:50 The Crucial Factors of the European Power Markets in 2008
Events so far & Outlook
Importance & wrap-up of the big points
- Cross-commodity - Who is sitting in the driver's seat?
- Weather impact - Is wind, water or temperature decisive?
- Demand growth vs. available capacity - a tight ratio?
- Cross-border trading - How essential is the impact?
- Non fundamental forces - Regulatory issues & Concepts
Conclusions & Outlook
Marcus Bokermann, Head of Research, EGL AG
Marcus Bokermann has more than 8 years experience from the energy market. In 2005 he became the Head of Research at EGL AG. Mr. Bokermann joined EGL AG in 2003 as an Energy Analyst from the position as Power Analyst of Energipartner Europe AG in Zurich. He holds a degree in Energy and Chemical Engineering (Diplom Ingenieur) from the Technical University of Berlin.
15:50-16:20 Questions and Discussion
16:20-16:40 Chairman's conclusion and closing of the conference
