Energyforum

In a report entitled “GHG market sentiment survey” presented this morning at a press conference at the Carbon Expo, IETA said 28 per cent of those it questioned believed prices for EUAs in the post-Kyoto period would be in the EUR 25-35 range.

In the second phase of the EU ETS, 51 per cent of respondents believed prices would be between EUR 25 to EUR 35, the association continued.

However, market views of CER volumes were “less optimistic”, continued the association, with only 23 per cent of those surveyed expecting significant growth in CER volumes. Yet, 88 per cent thought there would be market growth in the phase 2 period.

CER predictions

Expectations for CER prices are “fairly positive”, said IETA. “About 44 per cent of market respondents believe that the average secondary price would be in the range of EUR 15-20, while a further 29 per cent believe it will ioncrease to EUR 20 -25 in the period to 2012.”

In the longer term, the majority of respondents anticipate that CER prices will move above EUR 20, with 32 per cent expecting prices to go above EUR 25 between 2013 and 2020.

“Overall the market is not as favourable as it was last year,” said Henry Derwent, president and CEO of IETA, when presenting the report which revealed that the overall index of GHG market sentiment had dropped from 79 per cent to 73 per cent.

owever, Derwent was upbeat about the present state of global emissions trading. “We have seen euphoric expansion in the market, “he said, highlighting the contribution of the EU ETS, “the engine of the whole enterprise”.

IETA said it surveyed 243 companies and "other participants" and received 102 responses. The survey was conducted on behalf of IETA by PriceWaterhouseCoopers.